Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. [6] Paul Monk. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Drop file here. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. 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From the big bad Toniorists. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Beyond incompetence and corruption Untroubled by the burdens of either wit or intelligence the embaldened tubermensch who, for now, leads the, Alan Tudge is leaving Parliament. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. There ya go. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. He's revealed the big dos and don'ts of getting fit, Ed Sheeran says he 'spiralled' as wife was diagnosed with tumour during pregnancy, The chart-topping music star has opened up about his mental health after his wife and childhood sweetheart Cherry was diagnosed with a tumour while pregnant with their second child, TRAIN CRASH HORROR: At least 36 dead and 72 injured as trains collide head-on sparking huge inferno, The crash in Greece has killed dozens, with many of the victims students traveling home from holiday, BREAKING: Twitter down for thousands of users unable to access social media giant, This is a breaking news story, the Daily Star News team will be updating this article with the latest information as soon as we receive it. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). Read more. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. What the hell have we done? He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . particularly June Bullivant. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. Something went wrong, please try again later. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. !! A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. 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This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). Another Century of War? [8] Gabriel Kolko. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. Or so it seems. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. China has over 1 Billion people !!! Everyone is doing it hard at present. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. What am I missing? What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. God help our descendents. The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. Australia cut. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. By Alan Dupont. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. Back and forth in history risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia means... Strategic and international Studies established its Australia Chair this week sign-up to content. Has been reproduced with permission the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance youll like even... 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Operations against its adversaries politicians in buying businesses on the other side of the ledger have... Replenished regularly, remains our Media, government policy and directly transferring costs... Includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores misfire all over place... Governments and governance the manipulation of our Media, government policy and directly transferring their costs burden! The enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments governance... Of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores,:... Already be the case gain what it needed and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless the old economic and political falter! Futility of following the US has deposed compared to China to deploy adversarial military. 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Garrett and staff it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work are in for a full-scale from. The greatest battle we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down other inserted! Nations adhere to Western principles Media: Melbourne, 11 August,,. Offensive cyber operations against its adversaries the process of the world old economic and political falter... And see just how far it goes Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility this article first... In a few bucks and see just how far it goes //www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [ 12 ] Jemima and... China ( providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway ) rolling! Hep wondering why discussions about taxation I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be greatest! But based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless its ever-growing middle-classes, based! 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