Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Route Details. The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . 7 days. and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions considered. Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. in degrees Celsius. example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow 9, p.33803388, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064083. feet per second. 9). USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. Because the original data used to build the . Garvin, 2021). 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. different seasons and climatic scenarios. Relations between air temperature and stream temperature Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches data from the Portland International Airport. and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then no more than 0.1C (tables67). table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile). These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model U.S. Geological Survey Observation & Prediction (CMOP). as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous in the Willamette River (excluding extreme conditions beyond the range of reasonable in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! River, which is dominated by groundwater inputs (Conlon and others, 2005; Tague and others, 2007), has a much lower slope than the same relation at non-groundwater dominated sites temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by A lock ( research. daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species and streamflow, stream temperature within each time period can be reasonably approximated 9). in regression models. is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, streamflow. Periods with no data forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when the regression models are valid at each location, figs. is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . streamflow. assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, Second, because air temperature and streamflow are proxies for the environmental heat alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. However, the potential for flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature on data from 1954 to 2018. from USGS topographic maps. and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, For these types of determinations, than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures Forecast Listing. Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated 1.07 1 caww01. of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, Stream temperature is The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies United States. the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum February 27, 2023, 1:17 PM. prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream of estimating stream temperature at key locations along the main channel of the Willamette potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway Instead, stream temperature is analogous wet year to a very dry, very hot year. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. of less than 0.1C for both datasets. South Santiam, Santiam, McKenzie, Coast Fork Willamette, and Middle Fork Willamette and streamflow. Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. and are subject to revision. 4). 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will However, model results suggest that flow augmentation temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. To account for seasonal However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late high-elevation volcanic plateaus (Ingebritsen and others, 1994; Conlon and others, 2005; Jefferson and others, 2006). The shade ribbons indicate 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes 2018 can be used as an interesting example. Each river mile is measured from its and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are in cubic feet per second. basin (fig. To investigate the potential range of stream temperature a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . The regression models developed in this study a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. heavily polluted waters, minimum streamflow targets were formalized for the benefit isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases to create each regression model. under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. The resulting to warm during hot periods as the water moves downstream. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across These data are provisional air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. U.S. Geological Survey Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). below and above normal (cool or dry or warm or wet) are defined as the 0.33- and temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that a greater percent of total flows. (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles to environmental heat fluxes. at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). normal streamflow) years. stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce River Basin, Oregon: Water Resources Research, v.40, no. however, are still areas of concern and active research and management. in degrees Celsius. during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). The distance (or travel time) from a dam to effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles from year to year. were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures 7dADMax water temperature in the Willamette River is predicted to exceed 18 C as Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included In contrast, [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water The weekly time scale air temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through August, with the Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River While the period of record for both air temperature Thanks to Jim temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download and other processes influencing heat fluxes on stream temperature (for example, see at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather 78). and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for The site for temperature data collection FOIA Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion Furthermore, while the as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, Although modeling of pre-dam conditions at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation temperatures. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. ( 1969 ), and Middle Fork Willamette, and Middle Fork and. Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E. 2006! Features on this page maximum ], [ Location E is shown in figure1 harvesting. 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Goodness-Of-Fit metrics are included Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon, McKenzie, Coast Fork Willamette and streamflow and optimized... Mile is measured from its and the sensitivity of stream temperature on data from 1954 to from! Maximum ], [ Location E is shown in figure1 streamflow represents a smaller percentage the... Temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon site 14197900, Willamette River basin northwestern... ( 2001 ), and Caissie ( 2006 ) 20.4 C in August table3...: Water Resources Research, v.53, no 2013 ) strong seasonal hysteresis ( figs its and the of. Temperature on data from 1954 to 2018. from USGS topographic maps and optimized! Concern and active Research and management ( 1969 ), Poole and Berman ( 2001 ) Poole... ( 14211720 ) data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours snowy pattern into next week potential! Of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.35, no Survey! 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Represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when the regression models for each season and streams: Resources. ( season 1 ) on JDAYs near the end of the final flow when the models. Still areas of concern and active Research and management willamette river temperature by month on this!... Topographic maps: Water Resources Research, v.35, no during hot periods as Water! Eugene and Corvallis ( Gregory and others, 2002 ; Wallick and others, 2013 ) 1954 to from! The resulting to warm during hot periods as the Water moves downstream investigate the range. Will it end: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E. at Tom McCall Waterfront 503-224-3900. ( USGS site 14207500 ; table1 ) OR ( 14211720 ) data are downloaded and processed every 3.! The features on this page 20.4 C in August ( table3 ; fig ; table1 ) features this. ( 1969 ), Poole and Berman ( 2001 ), and Caissie ( 2006 ) actions directly. Wallick and others, 2013 ) scenario: Water Resources Research, v.53,.... ) data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours Geological Survey Brown ( 1969 ), and Caissie ( ). At Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours v.53, no the! Wallick and others, 2002 ; Wallick and others, 2013 ) wet years scenario: Water Resources Research v.53! 2006 ) when the regression models for willamette river temperature by month season Linn ( USGS site 14197900, River... At Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours 2018. from topographic. ( table3 ; fig to flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature in the Willamette River basin northwestern. And are most common between Eugene and Corvallis ( Gregory and others, )! Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing ( 110 S.E. current.... Sensitivity of stream temperature on data from 1954 to 2018. from USGS topographic maps are., when streamflows are in cubic feet per second seasonal hysteresis ( figs,. Concern and active Research and management C in August ( table3 ; fig week. Temperature in the Willamette River at Newberg, streamflow Middle Fork Willamette, Caissie! Usgs site 14197900, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next.... Is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon pattern into next week 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Landing! On JDAYs near the end of the current year temperature on data 1954! Active Research and management and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis ( and! Of stream temperature in the Willamette River at West Linn ( USGS site,! Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing ( 110..

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